The most common measures in the memory design compare pre- and post-outcome estimates with respect to their distance to the solution (in the hypothetical design, pre-outcome and post-outcome estimates are obtained between-subjects). Hindsight bias has been found with two-alternative-forced-choice tasks, both with respect to choices and to confidence in their correctness (“Which city has more inhabitants, London or Paris?”), with confidence in the correctness of assertions (“True or false: London has more inhabitants than Paris”), with numerical questions (“How many inhabitants does London have?”), with predicting outcomes of survey questions on a percentage scale (“How many German households currently have Internet access?”), with rating the likelihoods of possible developments of a given scenario (e.g., outcomes of international conflicts, patient histories, or consequences of business decisions) or with answers on closed rating scales using a few categories (e.g., rating one’s own or someone else’s performance, school grade, satisfaction or personality traits).

The following list is probably not exhaustive, but it covers most of the types that have been used. It is also very robust across type of tasks. It has been found in general-knowledge questions, in political or business developments, in predictions of elections or sport results, in medical diagnoses or in personality assessment, to name only a few. The phenomenon is very robust across content domains. Generally, hindsight bias is said to exist whenever the estimates made in hindsight lie closer to the solution than those made in foresight, and when the measure that captures this difference is significantly larger than for a control group. In the control situation, other people are asked for their answers without giving them the solution beforehand. In the hypothetical design, people receive the solution right away and are then asked to provide the answer they would have given without this knowledge. In the control situation, the same items are given to other people without providing them with the solution before they recall their original answer. In the memory design, people first give an (unbiased) answer, then receive the solution and are finally asked to recall their earlier, original answer.

Two different general experimental procedures are usually employed. Designs, Materials, and Measures of Hindsight Bias This effect has been termed hindsight bias or the knew-it-all-along effect. In particular, once people know the outcome of an event, they tend to overestimate what could have been anticipated in foresight.

Next time, maybe the well-intentioned student will not feel obliged to be right.Recollection or reevaluation of past events can be affected by what has happened since. Ultimately, overconfident approaches could restrict learning and growth in future occasions if people don’t fully dissect their experiences. Because this process appeared relatively easy, he interpreted that his good marks were indeed foreseeable. In this case, through selective memory recall, the individual extracted certain details-and left out many others-to craft into a narrative that made sense, given his final grade. This phenomenon is an example of the hindsight bias-the tendency to believe that a particular outcome could have been predicted-only after the result was already determined, not in foresight. While an event’s outcome may seem inevitable, its prediction may not be as obvious as someone thinks.įor example, a student gleefully leaves the lecture hall with his latest exam score-and loudly proclaims that he knew he would ace the difficult test all along!

Hindsight bias psychology definition